Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved of an emerging ceasefire deal with Hezbollah “in principle” during a Sunday night meeting with top security officials. Sources are making clear it is not ‘final’. 

Israel is expected to send its review of the deal on the table, including its reservations on some key details, to the Lebanese government on Monday. Any implementation of a ceasefire would need to the approval of Israeli cabinet, according to government protocols. The breaking headlines have once again caused oil prices to slide…

…and gold prices to recede…

Axios detailed Sunday that the draft ceasefire agreement includes “a 60-day transition period during which the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army would deploy in areas close to the border and Hezbollah would move its heavy weapons north of the Litani River.”

But Israel’s military has still made clear that it will directly respond to any continued Hezbollah attacks, even should a deal be implemented. A key interesting detail includes a US-led oversight committee which would monitor implementation of the ceasefire’s terms and address violations.

Hezbollah is unlikely to see a US-led oversight committee as a neutral outside party given Washington is Israel’s main backer and provider of heavy arms. According to more via Axios:

• The U.S. has agreed to give Israel a letter of assurances that includes support for Israeli military action against imminent threats from Lebanese territory, and for action to disrupt things like the reestablishment of a Hezbollah military presence near the border or the smuggling of heavy weapons, Israeli and U.S. officials say.
• Under the agreement, Israel would take such action after consultations with the U.S., and if the Lebanese military did not deal with the threat.

CNN reports Monday that “Sources familiar with the negotiations said talks appear to be moving positively toward an agreement, but acknowledged that as Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire, one misstep could upend the talks.”

Last week Biden’s envoy to the region Amos Hochstein said a deal between Israel, Hezbollah and Lebanon was “within our grasp” and that its success will be based on “the decision of the parties.”

“We have a real opportunity to bring conflict to an end,” Hochstein had said. “The window is now.” He also described his current trip to Israel as part of efforts to bring the deal “to a close.”

But one thing that negotiators fear could derail a final agreement is last Thursday’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu and his former defense minister issued by The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC). The prime minister was reportedly outraged upon hearing the news. 

Hezbollah continued to publicize their stepped-up advance drone attacks on Israel:

⚡️Hezb-Allah publish footage of them targeting the military bases belonging to the Israeli enemy army in the city of Tel Aviv (occupied Jaffa) with suicide drones and “Fadi 6” and “Qader 2” missiles pic.twitter.com/WNs7wQtbR2

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 24, 2024

The weekend into Monday has still seen heavy fighting. Israeli Army Radio has said Hezbollah fired 340 missiles and drones at Israel – while Israeli warplanes have continued to hit Beirut, Tyre, and parts of Lebanon’s east hard.

Lebanon’s health ministry has counted at least 3,754 people killed and 15,626 wounded in Israeli attacks since the conflict began; however, it doesn’t distinguish between armed combatants and civilians in its official figures.